Today’s objectives
Insurgency:
organized political violence by sub-state or non-state groups, directed against the agents of an incumbent government
includes:
excludes:
objective:
Insurgents
Counterinsurgency:
efforts by agents of an incumbent government to contain or defeat an insurgency
includes:
excludes:
objective:
Counterinsurgents
Definitions of success
Remember: (Counter)insurgency is bargaining by other means
Like this, but more lopsided
How to gain bargaining leverage: popular support (or at least acquiescence)
Making rebellion costly
Popular support is a collective action problem for (counter)insurgents
Puzzle of insurgency
An unfair fight?
Why have (counter)insurgents become (less)more successful over time?
Success \(=\) conflict ends without major concessions by government
International level
Domestic level
Other?
Battlefield level
Field Manual 3-24
“Popular support allows counterinsurgents to develop the intelligence necessary to identify and defeat insurgents.”
– FM 3-24 (1:29)
FM 3-24
How to earn a population’s support?
| Alternative approach | FM 3-24 | |
|---|---|---|
| coercive violence | vs. | “hearts and minds” |
| attack enemy forces | vs. | defense of civilian population |
| small commando units | vs. | large conventional forces |
| military avoids civilian duties | vs. | military performs civilian duties |
| short-term, limited | vs. | long-term, costly |
Theoretical basis for FM-3-24:
counterinsurgency “classics” of 1960’s (not contemporary civil war literature)
Empirical basis for FM-3-24:
Algerian War of Independence (not Vietnam)
Historical context of the Algerian war
FM-Mao
Prewar history
Pied-Noir
Front de Liberation National (FLN)
Aftermath of FLN attack
France’s “counter-revolutionary struggle”
Pied-Noirs also declare war
Paratroopers arrive
de Gaulle makes a deal
Charles de Gaulle
David Galula
Book: Pacification in Algeria (1963)
David Galula
Galula in FM 3-24:
Clear-Hold-Build
Goal: keep insurgents in “phase 1”
Clearing is the easy part
Limitations of Galula’s approach
Some of Galula’s ideas are not in FM 3-24
Mission creep?
Roger Trinquier
Book: Modern Warfare (1961)
In real life
In Battle of Algiers
Trinquier in FM 3-24:
Human intelligence
Taking a census
Some of Trinquier’s ideas not in FM 3-24
The dark side